The post It’s Time ‘Europe+’ Asserted Leadership and Challenged the US in Bosnia appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

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1/ Two days before his semiannual report to the UN Security Council, High Representative Christian Schmidt announced that he would be resigning his post as international High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). However, he also stated he would remain in post until a successor is chosen.

https://www.oslobodjenje.ba/vijesti/bih/christian-schmidt-odlazi-sa-funkcije-visokog-predstavnika-u-bi-h

2/ The move comes after months of speculation that the US wanted Schmidt to leave and applied pressure. It follows the marked American shift in policy in BiH beginning last October, with the blanket lifting of sanctions on convicted former RS President Milorad Dodik, who remains the de facto leader of the entity.

3/ This shift was also manifest in reported US admonitions against using the executive Bonn Powers, which the US had previously assertively supported – including their application during Schmidt’s near five-year tenure.

4/ @DPCGlobal has been highly critical of some of Schmidt’s actions. But it is important that Schmidt remains until a successor is named and can arrive – otherwise, the US will be able to seize control of OHR by default, if American Principal Deputy High Representative Louis Crishock has the helm as acting High Rep.

5/ Schmidt’s announcement also notably follows the passage of legislation in the Federation regarding the Southern Interconnector project, as well as an interstate treaty between BiH and Croatia – moves aggressively pushed by the US.

6/ The EU has made its misgivings on the SIC known in a letter by EU Head of Delegation Luigi Soreca to FBiH officials. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/eu-risks-fallout-with-us-trump-linked-balkans-pipeline-plan-intervention

7/ Dodik has been clear he wants state property fully under his control in the RS. Diplomatic sources relate to DPC that the US and Italy would be fine with a Dodik-friendly arrangement for their own interests.

https://www.democratizationpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/DPC-Policy-Note18_State-Property-in-BiH.pdf

8/ While the US may be playing for simple transactionalism and opportunity for profit, the confluence of these deals in the present environment are a recipe for even more state-weakening and ethno-territorial division of BiH, reinforced by foreign malign influence.

9/ So now the pressure is on Europe+ to come up with a Bosnia – and wider Balkan – strategy to protect its values and interests from all geopolitical challengers, starting with the US.

10/ The first step needs to be to resist the selection of a Schmidt successor who will accommodate the Trump administration’s transactionalist interests in BiH.

11/ Europe+’s members in the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) – the UK, Canada, Japan, and EU members France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain need to propose a strategy to the Union as a whole, and soon, to avoid a vacuum the US could exploit in the short-term, but with long-term consequence.

12/ Europe+ needs to ensure that it chooses Schmidt’s successor that will be ready to wield a strategy to continue to employ the Bonn Powers in the service of the Annex 10 mandate, to insure BiH’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,…

13/…protect institutions built since Dayton, and to help citizens of BiH make confident moves to a post-Dayton social contract that would enable meaningful progression towards EU accession.

14/ This will need to entail a commitment to cover the entire OHR budget – as it may well be that the US makes its displeasure felt at not getting its way by not paying its contribution. While many Europeans may balk, this is relative pocket change when compared to the influence that can have in BiH & the region.

15/ Furthermore, and just as crucially, Europe+ needs to reflect a “coalition of the willing” in maintaining a capable EUFOR by reinforcing it to brigade strength prior to October 2026 elections to demonstrate resolve to outside actors seeking to permanently destabilize the country and region.

16/ BiH is the central conflict generator and reservoir in the Western Balkans, having dragged both Croatian and Serbian democratic development backwards by being allowed by the EU-led “West” – now a term devoid of geopolitical meaning – for 20 years.

17/ Calls for Schmidt not to be replaced and OHR closed are deeply irresponsible – and either highly cynical or deluded in light of the facts on the ground and current trendlines.

18/ BiH’s Dayton political economy and operating system makes the political class gatekeepers for external actors seeking to benefit from public goods.

19/ Despite the clamor for state property to be resolved to promote “investment,” it is clear that until the country’s constitutional system is replaced with a new social contract, no resolution in the public interest is feasible.

20/ Appointing a US-approved High Rep to “resolve” state property would only enrich a handful of political spoilers and further undermine the country’s sovereignty, integrity, and declared aim of EU membership.

21/ Despite hopes in Brussels and member state capitals that they could simply do more of the same in the Western Balkans, Europe+ will have to upshift in BiH if it wants to prove itself a potent actor in its own “courtyard,”…

22a/ …and not allow a US in its own state of democratic decline to destabilize the country and region for its own short-term gain.

22b/ Sidestepping confrontation with Trump’s US by ceding influence would constitute appeasement, yielding permanent instability not only in BiH, but regionally.

23/ And nowhere on earth is Europe+ more potent collectively than the WB6, BiH in particular. If it doesn’t draw the line here, it is advertising it will not do so anywhere.

24/ Schmidt’s announcement oughtn’t have caught Europe+ completely flatfooted; succession had to be discussed, at least within foreign ministries.

25/ But this moment demands rapid strategic evolution for Europe+ members in a situation where they are relatively more empowered than elsewhere. They need to demonstrate that they can rise to the occasion.

The post Following High Rep Schmidt’s announced departure, it’s not a time for Europe+ to be timid in BiH appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

While the global arena has witnessed a solid nine months of relentless, flamboyant norm-busting by the second Trump administration, this dynamic seemed to largely leave previously established American topline policies intact. Of course, the wanton destruction of USAID early in the administration delivered a deep blow in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the rest of the Western Balkans, and – with devastating effect – globally. The wider Trump family engaged in deals, such as deeply controversial developments in Serbia and Albania. And US embassies became far less vocal and interactive with their erstwhile closest partners, including the EU – which has set the pace for the West through its enlargement policy for two decades. But the fundamentals of Washington’s policies pertaining to BiH and the region remained largely consistent, including the sanctions regime against the Republika Srpska (RS) separatist leader – and now convicted criminal and former RS President – Milorad Dodik and a wide circle of his family, associates, party, and connected businesses……

Read the full blog at BiEPAG here.

The post Where to for EU Enlargement in the Age of Reaction? The View from Sarajevo appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

As the new US National Security Strategy highlights Washington’s pivot away from a rules-based democratic global order, the EU should focus hard on the one region where it can exert the most leverage – the Western Balkans.

Read more at Balkan Insight here.

The post US Foreign Policy Reorientation Means EU Must Step Up Balkan Role appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

Ahead of the 30th anniversary of the Dayton peace agreement that ended the 1992-95 war, citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina are the most dissatisfied in the Western Balkans with the way they are being governed, an opinion survey highlighted.

Read more at Balkan Insight here.

The post Bosnians ‘Most Dissatisfied in the Balkans’ with their Politics – Is Brussels Listening? appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

Facing a ban from holding office and desperate to cling to power, Milorad Dodik must be prevented from stepping up his dangerous threats of Serb secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Read more at Balkan Insight here.

The post After the Bosnian Court Finds Milorad Dodik Guilty, What Next? appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

Joe Biden’s outgoing administration has less than a week to ensure its latest sanctions on Balkan leaders are not only transformative, but difficult for the incoming Donald Trump government to undo.

Read more at Balkan Insight here.

The post Time is Running Short for New US Sanctions in Balkans to Work appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

The United Nations Security Council’s unanimous decision to renew the mandate of the European Union’s peace enforcement mission (EUFOR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina for another year was a relief. Despite reports that Russia, an ally of Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik would go along with the extension, some — myself included — were not reassured. Indeed, the remarks by Council members during the Oct. 31 debate reflected fissures over the future of international oversight in the country, which still struggles to overcome the divisions cemented by the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords that ended the war. With the one-year cushion that the EUFOR mandate extension provides and today’s decision by Bosnia’s Constitutional Court rejecting an appeal by Dodik, Europe’s leading democracies must urgently prepare themselves for the disruption posed by the changed posture of the United States on Bosnia, exemplified just last week by the dramatic lifting of sanctions against Dodik.

Read the full article at Just Security here.

The post UN Extension of EU Troops in Bosnia Obscures Fissures Reflected in Debate appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

The Trump administration announced yesterday that it was lifting sanctions on convicted former Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik and associated individuals and businesses, penalties the United States had imposed over corruption and their decades-long record of violating and agitating against the U.S.-brokered 1995 Dayton Peace Accords that ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The removal of sanctions, including for members of his family and his political party — the current Serb member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina tripartite State Presidency, Zeljka Cvijanovic, is among the latter — follows a similar move on Oct. 17 favoring four other Dodik-linked individuals. Considering the timing and combined with other moves, it may signal a major shift in U.S. policy on Bosnia and the Western Balkans region and appears to reflect assertive pressure by U.S.-based lobbyists, including Trump-pardoned Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich…….

Read the full article at Just Security here.

The post U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Putin-backed Bosnian Serb Separatist Leader appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.

The post The Vares  Mining Project in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Case Study of Corrosive Capital in an Already Corroded Political Economy appeared first on Democratization Policy Council.