Podcasts

Valery Perry spoke with Eric Manton about the interesting work he has been doing to create a model he calls, “Adversarial Analysis,” which aims to make it easier to understand the current political dynamics in the US. He has mapped and contextualized key interest group blocks, their strategies for maintaining power and influence, their differences and fracture points, and more. As a part of his “4 +1” Analytical Framework, he dives into the interests and dynamics of four factions: Corporatist Oligarchs, Christian Nationalists/Heritage, the MAGA Faction of supporters that have adopted a MAGA cultural identity, and the Dystopian Tech Bros. These four groups have different interests in many ways, but the Venn diagram overlap has been successfully exploited by the Plus 1 – President Donald Trump.

Valery and Eric talk about how he developed the model, and how much of it was based on his decades of experience working in Southeast Europe, but also in the Czech Republic in the 90s where he studied and worked with people who had been key in that country’s dissident movement during the Cold War. This experience taught him that in situations of democratic disintegration and oligarchic consolidation, people – journalists, activists, advocates, and just concerned regular people – need to understand the interests, dynamics and potential fracture points of the key players who are undermining democratic checks and balances in order to both arrest the democratic decline and identify opportunities that can provide the foundation for rebuilding.

Check out the model and learn more at https://substack.com/@adversarialanalysis

Valery Perry spoke with Dr. Ivan Stefanovski of the Institute for Sociological, Political and Juridical Research at Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia. They talked about the impact of the end of US soft power engagement in the country, and how unfortunately many other European donors followed suit. They also discussed the country’s long and frustrating accession process, and the disillusionment among many in the population about what is perceived as an endless process constantly open to narrow and bilateral EU member agendas. In light of Skopje 2014, an extremely expensive and corrupt vanity project that transformed the capital city with poorly constructed statues, façades, arches and lions, Valery asked for any advice he could give to people concerned about the similar makeover happening in Washington DC.

On bigger picture geopolitics, Ivan noted his worry that the EU is not sufficiently motivated or equipped to respond to this moment of geopolitical flux, saying, “history has taught us that Europe doesn’t think strategically.”

Valery Perry spoke with Dr. Damir Kapidzic, a professor ofpolitical science at the University of Sarajevo. While the process of political campaigns and of elections are on the mind of many following recent elections in Germany, elections coming up in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and in Serbia, and the midterm elections in the US in November, another form of democraticparticipation is through the process of citizens’ assemblies. Damir has been involved in such assemblies at the local level and at the state level in BiH for several years, as well as conducting academic research on this form of democratic innovation.

They talked about a number of characteristics of successfulassemblies: using sortition to ensure a random and diverse sample of voices in the assembly process; deliberation and selection of specific topics to discuss and drive policy solutions; and how to hold elected politicians to account so they listen to the recommendations from these assemblies and take serious steps to implement them. One of the key challenges of such assemblies is that they are often more suited for tackling highly specific local level issues, and fail to deliver change in the broader structures that shape and drive the political economy. They have different perspectives on the extent to which thepost-war Dayton constitution can ever offer citizens a genuine and functional social contract, but did agree that hearing from citizens on how to architect a better future can bring solutions to the table that have been sorely lacking.

Valery Perry spoke with Dr. Nidzara Ahmetasevic, a professorand journalist with decades of experience, about the glorification of war criminal Ratko Mladic since his death on August 27, and the substantial show of public support at his funeral in Belgrade, Serbia yesterday. Her specific expertise in the use of language in the public space, and in how events are portrayed, revisited, reinterpreted and fundamentally rewritten provided the basis for an interesting discussion. The high-level and pervasive shows of support for Mladic in Serbia are leaving even long-time activists wondering whether or not protest and opposition can help or make sense. We also looked at how these issues are being processed in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Nidzara noted a number of grassroots organizations that have been doing excellent work in a difficult environment, keeping truth telling and memory alive. As just one example she noted that the War Childhood Museum in Sarajevo provided space for people to come and reflect on what the war and everything that Mladic stood for did to children during the war, and then later as adults.

In the second half of the conversation we zoomed out to the broader social and political space in which these negative trends are unfolding in the country, in the region and beyond. She sees a number of troubling developments in the rise of fascism in many places around the world, and sees little hope in deeply entrenched elites at any level in making fundamental change. However there are examples that provide hope: connecting people in an effective way to push back against these destructive and hate-based movements needs to be grounded from the bottom up, requires learning in all directions, and coordination across borders to confront shared threats.

Valery Perry spoke with Gresa Hasa about the Flamingo Revolution in Albania, and how the interest by Donald Trump’s daughter and son-in-law to develop a luxury resort in an ecologically important part of Albania led to a bottom-up citizen protest movement. While the use of physical violence by security forces against protestors served as a trigger for sustained citizen protests, this movement needs to be viewed within the context of three decades of citizen frustration with the lack of transparency, pervasive corruption and weak rule of law.
They talked about civic mobilization, citizen demands, the prospects for continued protests over the upcoming months, and the role that the European Union should be playing to support Albanian citizens who are actively demonstrating their support for democratic values.
Bringing these issues together, frustration with a fragmented global response to the climate crisis, the consolidation of power and money among an increasingly small sliver of elites and the threat that rampant inequality has on democratic governance show the challenges and potential for collective action, and the opportunities for citizens to learn from one another and demonstrate solidarity.

Mike Henning spent 31 years working for USAID on democracy promotion, human rights and other issues around the world. He was among the first Democracy Officers hired in the mid 90s to support the values of democratic participation as the world was settling following the end of the Cold War. On the other side of his career, he had a front row seat when the Trump administration enabled Elon Musk to destroy the congressionally established USAID, and dismantled an agency that has been a key element of America's soft power - contributing to comprehensive security - for decades.

Our conversation is sprawling, but focuses on lessons he has learned from his work around the world on how to fight authoritarian trends, government corruption and self-dealing, and to push back against efforts by elites to create a system in which citizens feel that there is nothing they can do to change things. We talked about how labor unions and other collective acts of solidarity can create opportunities for reform. Some of our conclusions are familiar to many who have done work on democracy and development either in their hometown or abroad - empowerment and community engagement are necessary to create a system in which people feel that their elected representatives work for them.

Valery Perry talks with Dr. Louis Monroy Santander about last weekend's elections in Colombia which saw a narrow win by a far-right populist candidate against a candidate from the left. The left/right split was notable as it reflects a polarization that has emerged in Colombia, and which needs to be understood in the context of seven decades of violence in that country. They talk about what this election means for a country still trying to move out of this cycle of violence toward some sort of transitional justice.
Louis spent a number of years in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Kosovo, so brings a perspective that enables useful learning about these conflicts in both directions and beyond. He finds hope in collective action and the empowerment of cultural practices that create space that is not dominated by elites yet can generate bottom-up change.

DPC's Valery Perry talks with Randall Puljek-Shank, who was involved in conflict transformation, community building and citizen activism in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for over two decades. He returned to the US shortly before the 2024 presidential elections and reflects on how his work in BiH and elsewhere around the world has prepared him for the current democratic challenges in the US, and what citizens in the US and BiH could learn from one another in terms of being a part of positive change.

DPC's Valery Perry talked with Pippa Gallop of Bankwatch about the southern gas interconnection gas pipeline project, which has become a main US political priority in BiH in spite of major questions about transparency, environmental impact, due diligence, the potential for it to become a stranded asset, and the long-term cost to the people of BiH.

Bankwatch warned of the pitfalls of this project already in early 2025: https://bankwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025_03_The-southern-gas-interconnection-from-Croatia-to-Bosnia-and-Herzegovina.pdf