Just hours after polls closed in the US midterm elections, it has quickly become evident that the Democrats have achieved what many did not think possible – winning control of both houses of Congress. The margin of victory is substantial enough that fears of court challenges or other actions by Trump and the Republicans to delegitimize the vote seem to have quickly dissipated. States that firmly supported Trump just 2 years ago are in many cases swinging to the Democrats; Democratic victory in a Senate race in Texas is particularly notable, as is the defeat of a decades-long incumbent Republican senator in Maine.
As the count is finalized and the margin of Democratic control of Congress and state governorships across the country is determined, a number of themes are already clear, reflecting voter sentiment and shaping up into a potential agenda for the next 2 years. These themes are also relevant in other parts of the world where democracy has seemed under attack, including where we have seen recent wins against anti-democratic leaders with an authoritarian streak – Serbia and Brazil most recently, and Hungary as well.
Voters sent a signal that they are tired of accepting that the system is rigged by power, influence and money that has enabled rampant inequality and eroded hope. In the US people are showing they are disgusted by money in politics and by billionaires buying influence. People who didn’t know the word “oligarch” a few years ago have seen the results of oligarchy, whether through data centers being built under shadow of darkness in their village, their air and water being polluted due to weakened environmental regulation, or their national parks being pillaged. US voters are showing they don’t like partisan gerrymandering creating electoral districts that are less about representation than incumbents drawing lines around voters they think they should control. Extreme tech-enabled gerrymanders not only didn’t work, but angered people who are tired of being disempowered.
This is a wake-up call that the nuts and bolts of the democratic process matter; that electoral systems need to empower the 99% through the vote, and governance systems need to ensure transparency and accountability in the service of fairness and dignity.
It is also a reaction against impunity and the idea that the rich and the politically connected enjoy a different set of rules, laws and judicial process than the rest of us. Rampant self-dealing and corruption is a part of this, as is frustration with politicians using language and demonstrating behavior that few parents would accept from their children.
A key challenge for the Democrats will be to find a way to investigate abuse of power to ensure accountability while also working to deliver a positive agenda focused on bread and butter issues like the cost of living, the availability of healthcare, and other issues that the progressive wing of the party in particular has articulated.
On the international stage, this can be read in two ways. First, it builds on a wave of pushback against right-wing victories that at times seemed unstoppable. This should feed confidence among people who believe in democracy, who have in past years seemed meek in the face of a confident and resurgent right.
However, the president of the United States still enjoys a significant amount of power and leverage in international affairs. Particularly since the domestic agenda will be shaped by a Democratic Congress, it’s possible that Trump will seek to distract from investigations by engaging more aggressively overseas. This will soon be evident with Iran. It is also likely to be manifest in Europe, where Trump, Vance, and Rubio have sought to assemble a “civilizational alliance” of far-right parties. Assistance to unfulfilled nationalist agendas in the Balkans is also unlikely to disappear; Bosnia and Herzegovina is a key state to watch in this regard.
As newly elected Texas senator James Talarico has said consistently, the status quo system has wanted the discussion to be about left vs. right so it wouldn’t be about the people at the top vs. bottom. This has been a rebuke of culture wars that are using hate and division to empower the powerful and distract from the basic opportunity and dignity that people want. It will not be an easy two years, and the world is still reeling from antidemocratic sentiments developing since the financial crisis. However, for now it’s another reason to remember that positive messaging, grassroots involvement and citizen participation can make a difference.
